The "R" score can tell us when it's over
Coronavirus: How to tell if it's coming back - By James R Smith
The “R” number, also known as the R zero, Rt, or even R(t) is an important number in understanding when it is safe to open up or wait a while. An “R” number higher than 1.0 means the pandemic is increasing. An “R” number less than 1.0 means the virus is not able to sustain its rate of infection.
The most successful states in keeping the “R” number down are Hawaii, Vermont, Alaska, Montana and New York, in that order. This is quite an accomplishment for New York given its previous high rate of infections and deaths.
The five bad-boy states are as follows: Utah, Maine, North Dakota, Tennessee, and baddest of them all, Texas.
Does the political party of the governor have anything to do with success in fighting the virus? Confusing this issue is the uneven infestation of the virus. Some states had few infections to begin with, while others like New York, New Jersey, California and Washington were nearly overwhelmed by the numbers.
Except for the fact that four out of the worst five scores are from states ruled by a Republican governor, I would say that, in general, factors such as particular circumstances of the state and/or the individual abilities of the governor are more important than is party ideology.
Keep an eye on the “R” scores. A dramatic rise in a state’s “R” score, especially above 1.00 probably means that we will be hearing of a partial closing up for that state. Of course, governors can just ignore the facts and risk an out-of-control increase in infections and deaths.
Here’s a website that tracks the “R” scores: https://rt.live
Opening up is a risky business since no one has any experience at it. Nor do we have any idea what will happen if a governor calls for a partial shutdown. Will the “liberty” protesters, many of whom are funded by the Koch brothers wealth, ratchet up their right-wing shenanigans, guns and all, in opposition?
If you live in a state that’s opened up with a .95 or higher score, you might want to send your governor and media some letters or emails citing the overwhelming number of people who would rather be safe than sorry. Looking at you, California.
Here’s the list from best “R” number to worst, and the Gov’s party affiliation as of May 25:
Please support this ad-free site with a sustainer of $5/mo or $35 for the entire year. With your support, we can build the new media, and pay other writers for their labor.