Will there be two pandemics this fall?
Flu vs. COVID
Hospital administrators are worried that come fall there will not be enough hospital beds available for everyone who needs one. This is not because they are expecting a surge in the COVID pandemic, but because of the overlapping of the usual flu epidemic and the viral pandemic.
The records for last year’s flu season, 2018-2019, show there were an estimated 490,561 hospitalizations as compiled by the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention). The year before was worse, 810,000. While not everyone gets hopitalized at the same time, it presents a burden on hospitals, even without a pandemic going on at the same time. The CDC is forecasting between 2,000 and 12,000 COVID hospitalizations per day. Currently there are 53,015 hospitalizations in the U.S.
According to Statista, there are 924,107 hospital beds in the U.S. This is part of a downward spiral of hospital beds since at least 1970 when there were 1,465,808 beds. The downward trend is caused by the domination of neo-liberal policies which included the quest for maximum profits by way of closing unprofitable facilities, or closing hospital wings. Less beds were acceptable since many people were rushed out of the hospital as soon as possible.
Even though 924,000 beds sounds like a lot, they are not all available at the right time and the right place. Even without a pandemic, many beds are in use due to the myriad variety of illnesses and injuries that affect thousands of people. In addition, a “hot spot” might occur in Pennsylvania, which has a shortage of beds, while California has lots of empty beds.
There are some reasons why the upcoming flu season might not be as bad as usual:
People are more aware of the importance of being vaccinated. My own experience is that the flu vaccine is very effective. I’ve been getting vaccinated every year for at least 10 years and not once during that time have I contracted the flu. Prior to that, it seemed as if I came down with the flu every year, like clockwork.
Up to 80 percent of people are wearing masks. They are effective against the flu virus and the COVID virus. If mask wearing continues through the flu season, it will probably eliminate most cases of the flu.
There are no guarantees that people will play it safe with the flu. There’s always the possibility that we will go crazy, as in early July, which set off a COVID upsurge in infections and deaths, and lengthened the “house arrest” for many of us. The downside is that people can catch the flu and COVID, at the same time.
It’s no secret (except in the White House) that the U.S. has had a difficult time with COVID. We are now fourth in the world in infections per capita, Only the countries of Chile, Kuwait and Panama are having a more difficult time coping with COVID.
Most scientists, and ordinary people, would likely agree that our problem is lack of leadership. And most of those would likely point to the President as causing the most problems, such as, denying the effectiveness of masks, opening the economy too soon, same for the schools, and in general setting a bad boy example which too many people have followed even to the point of violence.
Will Joe Biden do better? So far, he has isolated himself in his basement and has worn a mask at his rare public appearances. But he will have to do much more if he is elected President. What should he do? He can look to China, South Korea, Viet Nam, even New York for proven tactics in ending this reign of terror by COVID.
No matter how good or bad a President Joe Biden turns out to be, he will always be overshadowed by Donald Trump, who is a terrible President.
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Note: Donald Trump is not the worst President of all time. My nomination goes to Harry Truman. Seventy-five years ago this week, he ordered the dropping of an atomic bomb on a peaceful, undefended city, Hiroshima, which killed 66,000 people and injured another 69,000. The population of Hiroshima before this terror bombing was 255,000. If that wasn’t enough, three days later, he ordered the dropping of an atomic bomb on Nagasaki, population 195,000. This bomb killed 39,000 people and injured 25,000. At the time, Truman knew that Japan was on the verge of surrender, and was urged not to unleash hellfire on defenseless cities by most of his advisors. Truman’s crime was so bad that no one since has repeated it.
————————-Hiroshima, August 6, 1945
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The clock is tik-toking on Trump. The app is used mainly by teenagers and young adults, who Trump believes possess national security information vital to the Chinese. Judging from their 15 second videos posted on the site, most of the users are ordinary working class kids. Trump, once again, exposes the false myth promoted by the state department/CIA myths that the U.S. is the bastion of democracy, and particularly values free speech, contrary to the brutal dictators he opposes (and who have no problem with Tik-Tok).
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Welcome to new readers.
The Left Coast tries to inject some sanity, and sarcasm, into the difficult times in which we live. Stay with us for free, or kick a donation or subscription our way if you think the human race can do better. Check out some of the more recent articles, below. –Editor, James R Smith.
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Here are the latest R scores:
These are up-to-date values for Rt, a key measure of how fast the virus is growing. It’s the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person. If Rt is above 1.0, the virus will spread quickly. When Rt is below 1.0, the virus will stop spreading. -Rt.live
The latest R scores (Aug. 6) have improved in a number of states from the R scores of July 7. This should show up in a decline in the number of hospital admissions and deaths. However, there is a lag of one to two weeks before those numbers show a decline.
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