World Population Going Down, Infections Going Up
By James R Smith
I’m still recovering from Tax Days, which ended on July 15. It’s hard to procrastinate, when the government does that for you, but I did. Filing taxes is another example of our upside down world. The rich don’t even know when they pay taxes (if they do) since they have accountants to do it for them. But the poor have to learn a new language to even confront the forms, or spend more than they can afford for an on-line program, or worse yet, hire a real person to do them. Did you get a refund? If your answer is yes or no, please consider a $5/mo subscription to The Left Coast, if you don’t have one already, and spread the word to your friends.
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World Population will hit a peak of more than nine billion, then fall
In 44 years, world population will crest at 9.7 billion before declining to 8.8 billion by the turn of the century. Previous estimates had put the number of humans on the planet in 2100 at around 11 billion. The new estimate is from a study on the Left Coast by researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington's School of Medicine.
The IHME study says that by 2100, 183 of 195 countries will have fertility rates, that is, the average number of children from each mother, that are below replacement level of 2.1 births per woman. Demographic studies developed the R scores, also know as Rzero tests, which are now being used to chart the progress of the Coronavirus (see below). The only difference is that infection rates take the place of fertility rates.
The previous predictions for world population at the end of the century were around 11 billion. Even if we could grow or synthesize enough food and provide a small room for each of the 11 billion, we would not have the quality of life that most of us have enjoyed, at least before covid-19. In addition, 11 billion leaves little room for all the other species of the world, who are already dying at alarming rates. The destruction of natural habitats are harmful to bats around the world, who carry the covid virus. The destruction of the Amazon Rain Forest should be a Crime Against Humanity. But with less population pressure, combined with social movements, we can stop destroying the only home we have.
Why the new optimism about turning back to a sustainable world population? The development of modern contraception and improved status of women in society, including better education, job opportunities, literacy are causing women to delay pregnancy, and reduce the number of children per family. Another factor is caused by industrial growth and migration of peasants and agricultural families. When they go to an urbanized location, children, who were used as extra farm hands, now often become unemployed workers, and a burden on the family. Big families can be an economic boon on the countryside, but an impossible burden in the city.
While 2100 might seem like a long ways off, we will see a slowing down of population growth almost immediately.
There are already some heartening signs that we can stop worrying about over-population. China’s one-child per family policy had a huge impact on population reduction, which will continue to reverberate down through the generations. It’s 2100 population in China is estimated at only 732 million, down from today’s 1.4 billion. India’s population is already down to replacement levels, but not growth. The only areas which will have continued high growth are the Middle East and Africa.
At least 23 countries will lose half their population by 2100, including Japan (from around 128 million people in 2017 to 60 million in 2100), Thailand (71 to 35 million), Spain (46 to 23 million), Italy (61 to 31 million), Portugal (11 to 5 million), and South Korea (53 to 27 million). It is time for governments to reconsider their pressing need for immigrants.
Some “experts” will view these new numbers as a catastrophe. They will say that a smaller number of workers will not be able to provide pensions and healthcare for the retired. This might be true if society were a frozen ice cube, but it’s not. Society is always changing. The direction of change is fueled by the scientific-technological revolution which is making workers more productive. In some cases, intelligent machines can increase productivity by hundreds, or even thousands of times. This will allow society to divert a large amount of society’s wealth, not to billionaires, but to a Universal Basic Income for everyone.
The real catastrophe would be having too many workers who had no other means of sustenance. Something like the situation facing us in only weeks unless there are new subsidies.
___________________________________This is not our future
The Covid Pandemic is in High Gear
As if pulling out of the World Health Organization (WHO) wasn’t bad enough, now Trump has cut the main American pandemic organization, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) out of the loop for data reports from the states. Is he really a virus in disguise?
R numbers show how many people are infected on average by one infected person. Numbers below 1.00 mean the virus is shrinking, while numbers above 1.00 mean the virus is expanding. The column on the right in the chart below shows the most recent data.
The worse states are those that reopened in spite of high R scores. They include: Montana, 1.39; West Virginia, 1.29; Alaska, 1.27; Wyoming, 1.24; and Indiana, 1.23. Trump appointed VP Pence to head up the federal government’s oversight of the Pandemic. Who says Trump doesn’t have a sense of humor? It seems that Pence has been to busy to attend to his home state, Indiana, which is one of the most infected states. There are now 45 states where the virus is growing.
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo has been bragging for weeks about how New York went from the worse state to the best. Actually, NY had the lowest R score for only one day. He’s linking New York’s low infection rates with a “smart” opening, but it turns out there is no such thing. On May 15, New York reopened when it had an R score of 0.72. Now it is up to 1.1. On his latest broadcast, Cuomo said that the 10 percent increase in the rate of infections was ok. But it’s not ok, Governor. Please still die, while the virus thrives.
Good news for the Left Coast, all three states, California, Washington and Oregon showed declines in infections. It that trend keeps up, we’ll be virus free by 2050. Just kidding.
